The DCCC has posted this article from Roll Call entitled “Louisiana Lightning.” I recommend everyone read it in its entirety, as the article discusses Republican and Democratic strategy for 2007 and 2008. Here are some of the more interesting passages from the article:
Democratic officials believe that demographic changes in one of the South’s few remaining competitive states – for instance, many former New Orleans residents now live in Baton Rouge and Shreveport – could put Rep. Richard Baker’s (R-La.) seat within their reach.
“Baker is definitely on our radar screen,” DCCC spokesman Doug Thornell said. “We believe whether Baker runs for governor, Senate or seeks re-election, we believe he’s vulnerable.”
Baker’s 6th district is based in Baton Rouge, which swelled from 225,000 residents before Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit in 2005 to somewhere between 275,000 and 325,000 today, according to local officials.
The DCCC also is casting a glance at Rep. Jim McCrery (R) in the 4th district.Neither district seems like particularly fertile ground for Democrats on paper – President Bush carried both districts with 59 percent of the 2004 presidential vote – but a lot has changed since then.
Shreveport just elected a black Democratic mayor in November, Democrats are quick to note.
McCrery represents a big chunk of the Pelican State’s western side in a district that extends from Northern Shreveport almost to Lake Charles.
Former Rep. Chris John (D-La.), who lost a 2004 bid for Senate, said he thinks Democrats can not only rebound but can even make gains in his home state.
“The DCCC has hit the ground running,” John said. “I was called [for advice] five weeks after the [midterm] election by the DCCC recruitment committee.”
John said committee officials are “just trying to get a real lay of the land … just trying to get a real macro-picture with what they’re dealing with.”
He also said that Rep. Rodney Alexander (R) always has to consider himself a target given that he switched parties just before the state’s filing deadline in 2004.
Who should we recruit for LA-04, LA-05, LA-06, LA-07? Which elected officials in Louisiana do you believe have the capacity to unseat one of these incumbents? Which prominent people in Louisiana do you believe should run? I have a few in mind, and I will post them in the comments. I look forward to everyone else’s suggestions.
…would definitely be worth it for House Democrats, whether or not he runs for Senate. Landrieu will be mining that district for all of its ex-New Orleans voters (who will number in the tens of thousands). A strong Democrat should be there to ride on those coattails.
will hold closed primaries for federal races in Louisiana before the general election in November for the first time in state history in 2008, I believe the DCCC should be engaged in these races, as the new election structure will yield different results.
This district is comprised of 6 complete parishes and parts of 3 parishes. East and West Feliciana Parishes and West Baton Rouge Parishes are swing parishes in national elections and Democratic parishes in local elections, and notice how Bush’s margins in these parishes were not very large, less than 1,000 in each case. East Baton Rouge Parish is a swing parish, although Bush won it in 2004. Pointe Coupée, Iberville and St. Helena Parishes are Democratic strongholds, and all three were won by Kerry, although the Pointe Coupée precincts included in LA-06 are Republican precincts, while those in Iberville parish, which is overwhelmingly Democratic, are almost evenly split between the parties. Livingston Parish is a Republican stronghold, as are the precints of Ascension Parish included in LA-06.
Bush garnered 58.8% of the vote in 2004 in LA-06, while Kerry won 40.3%.
KERRY BUSH
Ascension – 24 precincts 4,629 14,011
East Baton Rouge – 300 82,298 99,943
East Feliciana – 24 4,091 5,021
Iberville – 24 precincts 3,742 3,418
Livingston – 56 precincts 9,895 33,976
Pointe Coupée – 13 1,701 2,964
Saint Helena – 15 precincts 3,173 2,235
West Baton Rouge – 21 4,932 5,822
West Feliciana – 18 2,214 2,932
East Baton Rouge Parish accounts for 63.4% of the votes in LA-06, and Livingston Parish, 15.3%. Here are the other parishes: Ascension, 6.5%; West Baton Rouge, 3.7%; East Feliciana, 3.2%; Iberville, 2.5%; Saint Helena, 1.9%; West Feliciana, 1.8%; and Pointe Coupée, 1.6%.
The district is 63% Caucasian, 33% African-American, 2% Latino and 1% Asian.
I would include Landrieu’s 2002 performance, but precincts in Pointe Coupée, Ascension and Iberville Parish have been redrawn, making it near impossible to determine how voters in LA-06 actually voted.
Ascension, 59 of 59
Click here for Results by Precinct 11,327 11,336
(As far as I can tell, the precincts included in LA-06 favored Terrel 2:1. Terrell won Ascension Parish, but remember LA-06 contains Republican precincts in the northern portion of this parish, not the Democratic precincts in the southern portion of Ascension.)
East Baton Rouge, 298 of 298
Click here for Results by Precinct 63,418 61,229
(Landrieu edged Terrell in East Baton Rouge Parish.)
East Feliciana, 22 of 22
Click here for Results by Precinct 3,645 2,976
(Landrieu beat Terrell in East Feliciana Parish.)
Iberville, 44 of 44
Click here for Results by Precinct 7,390 3,431
(Although the Iberville precincts included in LA-06 are generally split, Landrieu beat Terrell in the LA-06 precincts by a 3:2 margin.)
Livingston, 53 of 53
Click here for Results by Precinct 9,321 16,897
(Terrell handily defeated Landrieu in Livingston Parish, which will be a problem for any Democrat running in LA-06.)
Pointe Coupee, 24 of 24
Click here for Results by Precinct 4,977 2,998
(Although Pointe Coupée Parish is a Demcoratic stronghold, only precincts leaning toward the Republicans are included in LA-06. This was done during reapportionment to protect Baker against another difficult race after McKeithen almost defeated him in 1998. Terrell, as far as I can tell, barely edged Landrieu in these precincts, probably at a 8:7 margin.)
St. Helena, 15 of 15
Click here for Results by Precinct 2,714 1,292
(Landrieu handliy defeated Terrell in St. Helena Parish.)
West Baton Rouge, 19 of 19
Click here for Results by Precinct 4,187 3,025
(Landrieu defeated Terrell 4:3 in West Baton Rouge Parish.)
West Feliciana, 22 of 22
Click here for Results by Precinct 2,186 1,741
(Landrieu edged Terrell in West Feliciana Parish).
Any Democrat running in LA-06 has to win East Baton Rouge Parish while keeping Republican margins as low as possible in Ascension and Livingston Parishes. But this race will ultimately be determined in the smaller parishes, where larger Democratic margins can neutralize the Republican advantage in Livingston and Ascension parishes, making turnout in lberville, East and West Feliciana, West Baton Rouge and especially St. Helena key to any victory.
…we left LA-06 unchallenged last November, allowing Baker to score 83% of the vote against some Libertarian dweebface. It sure would have been nice to have known his maximum strength determined by how well he could do against a nominal Democratic challenger in a post-Katrina environment.